MicroVision (MVIS) Report
Compiled for Walt Scudder — March 2026
Prepared by Jeffrey via Aesthetic Computer · Source: family email archive (2015–2026) + current market data
Current State of MVIS (March 2026)
Stock Price: $0.61/share ·
Market Cap: ~$190M ·
Analyst Target: $2.50 (Strong Buy) ·
Ownership: 27.5% institutional, 9.8% insiders, 62.7% retail
Recent developments:
- New CEO Glen DeVos executing "Pivot to Profit" strategy
- Acquired Luminar Technologies' LiDAR assets (Iris + Halo sensors) for $33M — completed Feb 2026
- Raised $43M via senior secured convertible notes to accelerate acquisition synergies
- CEO, directors, and executives buying MVIS stock (March 2026)
- Partnerships with Anduril (defense), ZF (auto Tier 1), NVIDIA (AI/compute)
Sources: MicroVision IR · Yahoo Finance · Luminar Acquisition PR
Latest News Timeline (Dec 2025 – Mar 2026)
2026-03-16 ·
Insiders Buy $310K in MVIS Stock
All executive officers and U.S. board members committed to purchase shares at
$0.5322/share — direct purchases from the company, not open market. CEO Glen DeVos led the effort.
Source
2026-03-05 ·
D. Boral Capital Downgrades MVIS to Hold
Downgrade from Buy to Hold, citing "uncertainty around near-term sales growth and continued spending pressures." Stock fell ~19% post-earnings.
2026-03-04 ·
Q4 & Full Year 2025 Earnings
Q4 revenue:
$0.2M (vs $1.7M prior year). Full year 2025:
$1.2M (vs $4.7M in 2024). Net loss included $29.4M impairment charge.
2026 revenue guidance: $10–15M — mostly industrial, with balance from automotive (includes Luminar streams).
Cash burn for 2026: $65–70M. Cash on hand:
$74.8M.
Transcript ·
Seeking Alpha
2026-02-25 ·
CEO Fireside Chat — "LiDAR 2.0" Strategy
Glen DeVos outlined rationale for two acquisitions and the "LiDAR 2.0" transformation with expanded defense push.
Source
2026-02-24 ·
$43M Convertible Notes Issued
Senior secured notes to defer repayment obligations and accelerate Luminar + Scantinel integration.
Source
2026-01-27 ·
Luminar Assets Acquisition ($33M)
Acquired Iris + Halo LiDAR sensor IP, inventory, key engineering talent, and select commercial contracts.
Source
2025-12-16 ·
First MOVIA L Shipments — EU Defense OEM
Initial order for MOVIA L sensors with integrated software shipped. Repeat orders continuing in 2026. DeVos: suited for "mission-critical systems, whether protecting lives on the battlefield or cargo in industrial transport."
Source
2025-11-10 ·
Scantinel Photonics Acquisition (FMCW LiDAR)
Acquired 1550nm FMCW ultra-long-range LiDAR tech + team in southern Germany. Targets commercial vehicles.
Product Roadmap
- MOVIA S — next-gen industrial sensor, production launch Q4 2026
- FMCW ultra-long-range — roadmap via ex-Scantinel team (Germany)
- MOVIA L — shipping now to EU defense OEM, repeat orders ongoing
- MAVIN — long-range ADAS sensor, integrated with NVIDIA DRIVE platform
Peter's MVIS Blog (Latest)
- Aug 8, 2025 — "Building a skyscraper" — Compares MVIS to a $200M Miami lot: deep underground work invisible for months before the structure rapidly rises.
- May 20, 2025 — "Brain Trust compares Microvision to a biotech" — At a pre-investor dinner in Redmond, attendees likened MVIS to biotech: no current earnings, but underlying assets carry huge potential.
- Apr 21, 2025 — "Do Not Sell."
Blog: petersmvis.blogspot.com
AIM Intelligent Machines — Takeover Theory
Walt's call: AIM Intelligent Machines will take over MicroVision. They now share office space.
AIM Intelligent Machines retrofits heavy earthmoving equipment (excavators, dozers, trucks) to operate autonomously using LiDAR + AI. They're DCVC-backed with defense contracts.
Why the fit is almost too clean:
- AIM is in Bellevue/Monroe, WA — a few miles from MVIS in Redmond, WA
- AIM needs compact, affordable LiDAR for harsh outdoor environments — MVIS makes exactly that
- MVIS's MAVIN (long-range) + MOVIA (short/mid-range) at ~$250/unit fits AIM's cost model
- Overlapping defense angle: AIM defense contracts + MVIS/Anduril partnership
- MVIS at ~$190M market cap is very acquirable
- Shared offices = deeper than a partnership (joint engineering, due diligence, or pre-acquisition integration)
Sources: AIM website · DCVC portfolio · AIM BBB (Bellevue)
Grok AI Blind Valuation (March 20, 2026)
Grok was prompted to value a hypothetical company matching MVIS's exact capabilities without naming MicroVision — avoiding biased press coverage per Peter's technique.
Market Cap Estimate: $2–5 billion (bull case: $5–10B by 2028)
NED Licensing Deal: $200–500 million
Implied Price Target: $6–$16/share
Short killer: A special dividend of $2 from NED licensing would devastate shorts
Market Opportunity (Grok's Numbers)
| Segment | 2025 Market | 2030 Projection | MVIS Revenue Potential |
|---|
| Automotive LiDAR (ADAS) | $1.2–1.9B | $9–25B | $500M–$2B (5–10% share) |
| Industrial LiDAR (forklifts, heavy equip) | $3–8B | $6–13B | $200–500M |
| AR Near-Eye Display | $2.2B | $6.7B | $300–800M |
Comparable Companies
| Company | Focus | Market Cap |
|---|
| Hesai Group | Auto/Industrial LiDAR | ~$3.8B |
| Ouster | Multi-sector LiDAR | ~$1.3B |
| Aeva Technologies | Automotive LiDAR | ~$0.9B |
| Himax Technologies | Display tech (AR) | ~$1.7B |
| Kopin Corporation | Micro-displays for AR | ~$0.4B |
| MicroVision | LiDAR + NED + AR | ~$0.19B |
Peter's AI search tip:
"If you tell Grok to eliminate certain biased sources it will do that, and the answers are often very different... as Microvision has gotten a lot of bad/biased press, eliminating that will give a better answer."
Reverse Chronology — 11 Years of MVIS Research
2025 — Anduril, ZF, NVIDIA Partnerships
2025-07-11 ·
MicroVision Retail Investor Day Town Hall
2025-04-05 ·
CoPilot Analysis: Anduril + ZF + NVIDIA
PDF analyzing MVIS's defense/auto/AI partnerships.
Download PDF
2024 — Interactive Spreadsheet Analysis
2024-10-09 ·
MVIS Lidar Spreadsheet v2 (Autos + Industrial Robots)
Interactive spreadsheet with user-adjustable variables.
View online
2024-03-17 ·
MVIS Lidar Spreadsheet v1
"All the cells highlighted are variables where users can input their own ideas and it will do the calculations."
2021 — TD Ameritrade Review
2021-11-17 ·
Buy Back Recommendation
Jeffrey sold 1,100 shares at avg $13.54 ($14,894). Walt urged rebuy at $8.62. Projection: buy at $9, sell at $40 = $34,100 profit.
2020 — Amazon Breadcrumbs & Volume Explosion
2020-05-09 ·
Trading Volume Explosion
842M shares traded (56x YoY). 6-day volume = 5x the entire 130M float. "My gut tells me something big is going on."
2020-01-07 ·
Amazon Breadcrumbs — The Salmon Platter
Walt discovered MVIS data sheet image matched a Whole Foods listing. Peter confirmed: Amazon engineer reacted with "shock and startle" about the laser projector in Alexa.
Peter's blog post
2019 — PPS Modeling & Bull/Bear Debate
2019-03-10 ·
Future PPS Calculations
Walt's bull case: 1B units, PE 14, 30%+ margins. Chad Zawistowski's bear case: 35M units, PE 5, $1.70 target. Known deals: $25.2M contract (HoloLens 2), $10M display-only license.
2018 — "MSFT and AMZN Are the Mystery Customers"
2018-08-02 ·
Q2 CC Analysis (via Roger Collamati)
"I personally think two of the big ones MVIS has been working with are MSFT and AMZN." Roger: "Hang in there."
2017 — Analyst Reports & Chinese Smartphones
2017-07-26 ·
VOGA V Phone (MVIS Engine Inside)
"I think this phone with the MVIS engine will become very popular in China."
Peter's review
2017-03-23 ·
RDI Bullish Report + Apple/STM Rumors
"If rumors about STM having large order from Apple for a 3D sensor that includes Microvision's product prove true — this stock could be a real winner."
2016 — "Bottom of the First Inning"
2016-03-08 ·
Q4 CC: Baseball Analogy
"MVIS has a runner (Sharp) on first and another runner (Sony) on second with no outs." Tracked Robohon, Xperia Agent, Foxconn buying Sharp.
2016-01-06 ·
CES 2016: Sony MPCL1 + Ford HUD
MVIS tech at CES through Sony, Celluon ($299–$450 projectors), Ford HUD. You gave me the Sony MPCL1 for Christmas.
2015 — The Beginning
2015-07-27 ·
Roger Collamati: "Why MicroVision?"
"Why this company will be the next big investment to have." MVIS at $3.40. Roger's 15-person distribution list.
2015-06-09 ·
Peter's Blog: "Why MicroVision? Because THIS."
The founding thesis: consumers demand bigger screens, PicoP projection is the answer. This idea evolved through interactive displays, HoloLens, LiDAR, and defense tech over the next decade.
Peter's MVIS Blog
Key Links